Using Prognostic Models to Predict the Future: What Cardiothoracic Surgery Can Learn from Strictly Come Dancing

This article looks at the application of prognostic models within cardiothoracic surgery, and medicine in general, using a televised UK dance competition where professional dancers are paired with celebrities as an illustration. The authors use available data from previous series to make predictions about the outcome of the competition and highlight the pitfalls of misapplication of prognostic models, particularly when extrapolating conclusions from demographic data alone.